The Year Without the Frontrunner: A Guide to the Unpredictable Oscars Race

In a departure from the typical Academy Awards landscape, six films—"Anora," "The Brutalist," "A Complete Unknown," "Conclave," "Emilia Pérez," and "Wicked"—are vying for Hollywood's most coveted prize.

Contender Analysis

"Emilia Pérez":
With 13 nominations, "Emilia Pérez" appears to have an edge. Its success at the Golden Globes, particularly for supporting actress (Zoe Saldaña) and best picture (comedy or musical), bodes well. However, its lack of recent guild wins casts doubt on its frontrunner status.

"The Brutalist":
Brady Corbet's ambitious 215-minute epic has garnered critical acclaim and earned 10 Oscar nominations. Its technical prowess and themes of power and control could resonate with voters. However, its length and lack of a SAG cast ensemble nomination pose potential obstacles.

"A Complete Unknown":
Searchlight Pictures' late-season release has gained traction with guilds. Its depiction of Bob Dylan's 1960s era and its appeal to older voters suggest it could surprise on Oscar night.

"Wicked":
Universal's musical adaptation boasts themes of acceptance and inclusion. However, its lack of screenplay and director nominations casts doubt on its chances.

"Conclave":
Focus Features' political thriller echoes "Argo" with its focus on corruption and secrecy. Its potential success hinges on a strong showing at the BAFTAs or a PGA victory.

"Anora":
Sean Baker's Palme d'Or winner has earned nominations at every major guild and is the presumed favorite for original screenplay. However, its lack of major awards to date and uncertain nomination translation raise questions about its frontrunner status.

Genre Bias and Industry Trends:

Historically, dramas have fared better at the Oscars than comedies. This year's absence of a clear comedy contender could further tilt the scales in favor of more serious fare.

The Producers Guild of America (PGA) will be a crucial bellwether, as its preferential ballot system mirrors the Oscars. A PGA victory for "Emilia" or "The Brutalist" would solidify their frontrunner status.

The Oscars race remains highly unpredictable, with no clear favorite emerging. The final outcome will likely depend on the results of upcoming ceremonies and the preferential voting system used by the Academy.